Easy Money - Disruption
Since the 1950’s money has been rigidly controlled by longstanding organisations such as banks and credit companies. However, new technologies and developments threaten to upset this system, to disconnect money from the organisations that control its flow and put it into the hands of the individual.
Over the next five years money will come to be understood on a much more personal level. Microtransactions from person to person via mobile or other devices will become common, and new avenues for microtransactions will open themselves. The phenomenon of life-gaming will lead to the growing precedence of buy-in currency that can be used to make purchases in-game and thus can hold real-world value. By bypassing banks and credit companies, money can achieve an ease-of-travel and instantaneous nature never before seen. Small businesses and even individuals will be empowered with the access to a large base of consumers who no longer carry any physical currency.
Evidence:
· Technologies such as Square and TwitPay let people make microtransactions quickly, easily, and in a way that bypasses traditional infrastructure, processing fees and delays.
· The growing popularity and value of in-game currencies and “points” such as FarmVille Bucks, Gold (World of Warcraft), Microsoft Points.
o Controversy over “gold-mining” activities in games such as WOW and legal battles over the real financial value of virtual, in game goods. Many online currencies have unofficial but very real exchange rates with the US dollar.
· “There are more FarmVille accounts then Twitter accounts... you pay real money to get virtual money” Jesse Schell, Carnegie Melon
o See: http://gigaom.com/2010/02/22/video-reality-tv-iphone-the-future-of-technology-why-its-all-a-game/
· PayPal and Google recently opened to public development their commerce platforms, allowing for online purchases at a fraction of the traditional cost.
Opportunities:
· How might services such as PayPal, TwitPay, Square build off the growing use of in-game currency and the growing popularity of life-gaming such as FourSquare. What are new ways of making money off micro-transactions linked with games played as part of day to day life?
· How might cheap, infrastructure-free access to card-carrying customers empower small businesses and passionate individuals?
· What sort of new purchase/payment models can be created to take advantage of cheap, infrastructure-free and instantaneous transactions? Eg. iTunes and PayPal systems.
Kindred Spirits
Every day the world grows a little smaller, new tools and technologies come into existence that allow for the fostering of small communities with real-world pursuits. Building off the DIY Revolution (technology to manufacture and create quality custom goods now accessible to garage hobbyists), small communities can form and produce small batches of custom goods, designed to the interests of a particular niche.
New tools for collaboration are arising out of the need for like-minded people to meet and share ideas, resources and responsibilities. In 2015 small industries, not linked to geographic location but rather through shared interest and expertise will change the commercial landscape. New technologies will make it easy to meet and communicate, to create ideas and to then push those along to the point of a final product. New services will come into existence to allow small communities to get access to the tools and infrastructure they need to create and distribute products.
This trend emphasises the power of both the individual and the community. Large corporations can be bypassed and the niches otherwise missed can be filled. People can now pursue their passions and want to meet with like minded people.
Evidence
· Smart companies such as Apple, Google, Intel, Twitter, Facebook have opened their platforms to personal and community-based development. Twitter might not even exist anymore were it not for its openness to community development.
· The success of open-source projects such as Linux attest to the potential of a specialised, passionate community (remember, these people do it for free!).
· Companies such as Local Motors, creating a crowd-sourced car design sell their kits and access to workshops, appealing to a small but passionate niche market.
· Services such as Alibaba allow easy access to Chinese (and worldwide) manufacturers for small-medium batch production. Even includes built in translator.
· Services such as CrowdFunding and RocketHub let you meet investors, experts, and interested people to work with on a project.
Opportunities
· What might companies of the future look and operate like in a world with no traditional boundaries (location, language, etc)? What if companies worked like Wikipedia?
· How might this grow with the trend of Easy Money?
Ownership
Ownership over the content of our devices is always a disputed landscape. Large corporations tie up what we do & make with our devices into frozen contracts, such as End User License Agreements, Terms of Service & Copyright contracts. Many of these notions revolve around 20th century norms of copyright protection & profit sharing for sold material. Large corporations have become more and more scrutinized over what is seen and what can be seen on their devices, therefore they are limiting the creation & sharing of the content on their devices.
Countertrend
This is frustrating users more and more, pushing many to hack, modify or unlock their devices for the sole purpose of removing anyone’s hand from their pocket. This is a belief that the internet is a free platform for sharing, creating and collaborating rather than property to be subdivided amongst the largest corporations. This grounds-up movement is gaining momentum, and may soon topple the power of those who currently control internet and device content. The push and pull relationship between truly open devices and what seem to be will sway towards fully user controlled environments.
Evidence
· Not-for-profit organizations such as Creative Commons and Electronic Frontier Foundation are slowly getting exposure & use. Their presence on many of the internet’s largest creative spaces (such as Flickr and deviantART) offer users the protection and right to control what is okay to do with their creations.
· The world’s largest stores iTunes and Amazon have converted to DRM-free electronic content. Although dubious in intent, this proliferation of an open-ended purchase concept of electronic goods through the internet’s largest marketplaces is a good start.
Opportunities
· How might we promote the release of 100% open devices to large manufacturers?
· How might the internet’s “freedom fighters” garnish enough attention from the general public for them to become influential-enough representatives of user rights?
· How might legal contracts change to accept customer freedom while maintaining the rights of the creator?
· How might we make user-created content a viable business idea, so everyone gets a slice of the cake?
LifeSearching
As our mobile devices grow smarter, as more and more sensors are packed into them they will as a result offer new opportunities for interfacing with the world. As the price and power-issues of processing and advanced sensors drop new devices will be created with an ever greater ability to recognize and react to the world.
The “real world” will meet the “unreal” – the world of the internet, the cloud, and with these new technologies the two will in same ways merge to create a sort of hyperreality. A world where all of life can be associated to some sort of metadata, where your day to day interactions, everything you see and experienced can be indexed and referenced to a greater community and body of knowledge available online. In 5 years new devices will exist that will allow for the easy linking of the physical to the meta-physical, without the use of cumbersome technologies such as RF tags or QR codes.
Image recognition technologies, along with increased context-sensitivity (through the use of GPS and other sensors) will allow always-aware devices. Linked with an increasing amount of personal information we comfortably share online, our line personas will be inextricably linked to our real selves.
Evidence
· The new Microsoft phone and OS has a hardware search button on the phone. Microsoft recognises that the primary function of the device is as a portal to information. The phone also integrates feeds from social networks into your content and Photos, again emphasising the unification of real and online.
· Nokia has developed a radar system for mobile phones that allows them to sense the presence, speed and direction of objects nearby. This will allow them to recognise gestures and activity without the use of a camera.
· Great deal of research placed into context-sensitive advertising for mobile phones.
· Services such as Google Goggles and Recognizr allow users to identify objects, places and people with their phones camera and pull up relevant online searches. Recongizr links realtime a person with their online personas.
o See: http://www.tat.se/site/showroom/latest_design.html
· Google Latitude and Stalqr allow users to track friends through GPS
Opportunities
· How might new methods of advertising be created that target themselves relevant to context and moment in life?
· How might issues over privacy arise when we can no longer escape our online identities?
· How might this technology become even more powerful when linked with realtime media such as Google Realtime and Twitter feeds?
DIY Revolution - Disruptive
The cost of rapid prototypers, circuit-board printers, CNC machines and other technologies are making it easier and cheaper to produce small batches of specialised goods for niche and mass markets. As the price continues to drop these technologies will become accessible to almost anyone. Where traditionally the manufacturing of physical goods was limited to corporations and craftsmen, new industries can now come into existence with the capability of mass production with quality matching or exceeding that of larger companies.
Over the next 5 years, rapid prototyping will become cheaper, more accessible and more useful for batch production. Building off Easy Money and Kindred Spirits, new communities of interested individuals can form around the creation of physical goods, designed for their specific interests. As retail space in prime locations becomes cheaper due to the sagging economy, and with many laid-off workers taking to their passions the time is ripe for this technology. Also motivated by the economy are Chinese manufacturers, who are now more open to working with smaller batches, accepting PayPal (see: Easy Money) and communicating online.
These new technologies will allow the same sort of radical changes in business seen online to finally make their transition to the real world.
Evidence
· Rapid prototyping machines which 5 years ago cost over $125 000 have now dropped to the sub $1000 price range. A CNC can be built with crowd-sourced plans for the same price.
o See http://www.makerbot.com/, http://buildyourcnc.com/
· “The days of companies with names like “General Electric” ... are over. The money on the table is like krill: a billion little entrepreneurial opportunities that can be discovered and exploited by smart, creative people” Cory Doctorow, Makers
· Platforms like Arduino allow cheap access and easy development to programmable computers.
· Businesses like Etsy which deal in small-batch high quality goods have exploded, Etsy making over $200 million in sales last year.
· Services like Alibaba exist to connect small-scale manufacturers with Chinese factories. A $12 billion company with 45 million registered users.
Opportunities
· How might Toronto encourage the development of small businesses and companies?
· How might the creative crowdsourcing needed for these projects be encouraged and organised?
· How might we promote open-sourced digital media by starting with physical media?
There are 5, however we wanted to throw in a Wild Card trend. You know, just in case.
Travel-free society – wild card
With real-world applications of technology services increasing by the day, people are finding less reason to leave their homes. Online marketplaces are destroying real-world businesses and forcing competitors to jump on the bandwagon and alter their business-plans to align with e-commerce. Our need to leave our homes, villages or cities is becoming smaller and smaller as there is a variety of online services to cater to any of our desires. Urbanisation may become less attractive as we need fewer immediate, real-world services. Tourism may even decrease, as visiting a new place without leaving your living room is becoming more real and more engaging.
Business travel is becoming obsolete, as much of the trade interactions formerly done in person can be automated or bridged through the internet. Companies can become decentralized and don’t necessarily need any proximity to their suppliers, manufacturers or customers.
We will no longer need to leave our homes or businesses whatsoever.
Countertrend
The human’s desire for a physical connection to our partners and environments may forever supersede any online, electronic or technologic meetings & discoveries. Technology may facilitate these interactions, but human nature will forbid them from being replaced entirely.
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