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Here are the cultural trends our group recognized:
Rising SunThis an an obvious one.
Both China and India are on a rocket course economically and socially. Per person GDP
has risen exponentially in both China and India. Economies are beginning to shift away
from pure manufacturing for export towards a greater emphasis of design. In recent
years we have seen the development of world-known design and engineering firms
based in China and India. TED recently began TED India, a sure sign of the pool of
growing potential for innovation and insight within that country.
As Asian countries work their way up to western standards of living and greater
amounts of the populace gain access to technology both China and India will work their
way into the limelight otherwise, at least within north America -- taken up almost
exclusively by north America and western Europe. The highly publicized contention
between Google and the Chinese government can be seen as an example of no doubt
many future collisions between old regimes and values and a new role in the global
economy and society.
And collisions are sure to come, as China in particular faces a new sort of growing pain
as its export dependent economy develops to compete directly rather than merely
supply Western industries.
Still, with new challenges come new changes. Though powerfully economically and
politically, a fair proportion of both China and India have long missed out on some of
the connections to the rest of the world granted by technologies such as the internet.
In 2015 we will see a new generation, fuelled by their own new, fresh ideas come enter
fully prepared and eager to participate in the social sphere offered by communicative
technologies such as the internet. Coming with them will be a different way of looking
at the world, with new ideas and old traditions presented through new mediums.
Evidence
-Internet penetration in China rose from 16% to 23% in a single year between
2007 and 2008. China now has the most internet users in the world, at 298
million.
-The top social networking site in India, Orkut received 12.8 million visitors in
2008, an increase of 81% from the previous year. Facebook, the second most
popular rose 150%.
-TED hosted TED India for the first time in 2009, showcasing for the world the
works and thoughts of Indian artists, designers and scientists.
-Hans Rosling gives an excellent talk on the rise of Asia and what that means for
the rest of the world at
http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_asia_s_rise_how_and_when.html
Opportunities
-How might Toronto’s role as a global city come into play as Eastern nations
come to play a more prominent role in our economies and cultures.
-How might greater access to and communication with the people of China and
India change our perceptions of those countries? How might a personal, human perspective affect consumer feelings towards products manufactured there?
AnonymUSAs we move towards 2015 we will come to see an interesting mixture of the anonymity
traditionally granted by the internet and online channels with the collaborative and
open nature of our interactions online.
The power of the “mob” will become increasingly pronounced as people grow comfort-
able with the idea of relationships centered around anonymity online. Communities,
centered on shared concerns and interests already exist and as the communicative
potential of new mobile technologies and the internet develop so too will social comfort
with communities linked together by things other than personal relationships.
Obvious examples include collaborative projects such as Wikipedia and social aggrega-
tor sites such as Digg. No doubt these will continue to develop and become more
encompassing. Striking examples however include phenomena such as Anonymous, as
loose “organization” with anonymous members around the world who seemingly at
whim rise up together for particular causes. Often cruel in nature they occasionally
work for some sort of greater good as seen in their large and worldwide protests
against Scientology and issues surround internet neutrality, organizing both legal
protests and also using dubious methods such as hacking, vandalism and death threats.
It’s interesting to see mob behavior in its purest form. Everyone driven in some way by
their own motivations yet coming together to create something substantial. Totally
unstructured and decentralized.
In 5 years it is likely new devices and technologies will allow the human drivers that
underlie these examples to come to full bloom. The power of large, anonymous crowds,
coming and dissolving seemingly at whim is something to watch out for. Many
traditional media outlets have been replaced by or supplemented with social networks
or outlets for anonymous discussion. Obama’s campaign for president took advantage
of social networking and of the large anonymous community. As current youth grow
into a world where both anonymity of action and openness of identity coincide the way
they understand their groups and communities will change.
Evidence
-A company called txteagle is the largest employer in Kenya, with 10, 000
employees working for it anonymously over their cellphones performing micro-
tasks for micropayments.
-Anonymous organisations like Anonymous, coming out of seemingly nothing have
at times challenged large governments and organizations such as the Church of
Scientoloy.
-http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/17-10/mf_chanology
Opportunities
-Over the next few years people will grow more and more comfortable with
participating in a new sort of “mob”. How can the temporary nature of mobs, as
seen in flash-mobs be used for social good. Is flash charity possible?
-What sort of challenges will arise as individuals allow their identities to cement
themselves online while at the same time striving for the anonymity offered by
the medium.
Minority SwayWith recent forecasts of Caucasians becoming the visual minority by 2031 in Toronto, foreign cultures will be ever more accessible. These reports have already triggered racially-sensitive debates. Living in “the most diverse city in the world,” our exposure to other traditions & customs is generally very open. With waves of immigrants reaching their new Western homes, cities will be changed to accommodate these new inhabitants. This influx will alter established neighborhoods, local economies will need to morph toaccept the arrival of new labor, & existing citizens will get to introduce themselves to new cultures & traditions. Populations have always had to grow or move for one reason or another, however this will affect potentially-sensitive Western urban centers. Current citizens will have the opportunity to learn about these newcomers, as well as introduce local cultures to new Canadians.
Evidence:
-Recent studies done in Canada claim that “Federal agencies asked for these numbers to help plan long-range multicultural and economic programs.” http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/777547---visible-minority-will-mean-white-by-2031
-One particular town in England tells how it has handled a massive arrival of a Latvian
workforce:
http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/the_way_we_live/article7048692.ece
Opportunities:
-How might we establish multicultural infrastructures to prepare for this new ethnic
divide?
-Will immigration rules change? How will this be accepted by the public?
-How will we culturally benefit from the arrival of new neighbors?
-What will the neighborhood of 2015 actually look like? What about 2031?
HackerspacesVarious hacker studios, workshops & common spaces have been established all over the world. As the stigma & negativity attached the word hacker dissipates, the effectiveness of these spaces will increase. What stemmed from a DIY movement in altering, opening & modifying computer-related products, is slowly expanding to encompass the cultural movement of Making. Ordinary citizens could use the knowledge of these community centres to fix broken devices or objects, gain knowledge about increasing performance of every day tools, & find out how to better employ the material goods we already own. These think-tanks of underground tinkerers will become libraries for physical creation, as well as reference institutes.
Evidence:
-Various hackerspaces have been established in the Southern Ontario area. They have been gaining publicity & attendance. http://hacklab.to/, http://www.thinkhaus.org/,
http://kwartzlab.ca/
-Sites like http://www.ifixit.com/Teardown offer users teardown & repair instructions to extend the life of busted gadgets. These are the activities that the public could consult with hackerspaces with.
-Modifying IKEA products has its own subculture. Sites like http://ikeahacker.blogspot.com/ &
http://lifehacker.com/ showcase modifying semi-modular IKEA products & how-to’s.
Opportunities:
-How might we generate publicity about local hackerspaces?
-How might we introduce free culture concepts to the public?
-How might hackerspaces get government recognition?
Mainstream Green TechnologyOver the last decade years people have become more concerned over the state of the
environment. Global Warming and high-energy prices are motivating people to be less
wasteful and use “green” technology.
Governments locally and worldwide have implemented policies to regulate and monitor
carbon emissions. The City of Toronto has implemented City of Toronto protocol that
implements green building indicatives. As of last year the United States have made it
mandatory for all companies to report their yearly carbon emissions.
While green technology is currently a novelty. It is safe to say that it will be common-
place by the year 2015.
Evidence
-Smart Grid Technology:
Smart Grid technology is a developing network for delivering electricity. Rather than
broadcasting electricity generally, the power grid monitors the power being used and
responds according to the demand. Canada and the U.S are developing this technology
and hopes to install smart grid and smart grid meters within the next five years.
http://canmetenergy-canmetenergie.nrcan-
rncan.gc.ca/eng/renewables/integration_der.html
-Carbon Emission Reporting: Enviance is a new service that companies can employ to
track their waste of green house gasses. Last January the United States made it
mandatory for companies to track their carbon waste. Despite the efforts oft the
government, a recent survey has proven that 61 % of companies have never tracked
their carbon emissions. In the future companies will need services such as Enviance to
comply with current regulations.
http://blogs.zdnet.com/green/?p=10588
-Fuel Cell Cars: 2015 is the date predicted for the launch of Hydrogen Fuel cell cars.
Currently, GM, Toyota and Honda are developing the technology.
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/11/23/prediction-in-2015-fuel-
cell-vehicles-will-be-cheaper-than-a/
Counter Trend
-Resistance to Smart Grid Upgrade: Currently 8 %of the world has converted to
the smart grid system. While projects are in production, people are skeptical about
the program’s benefit. Recent survey from Microsoft World Wide Utility hasreported
that 42 % of the world’s populations believe their countries are not properly
equipped to transfer their power to the Smart Grid System. The primary concerns
are its overall costs, the resources it will require, and the disruption caused in its
implementation.
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2010/mar10/03-11SmartGridPR.mspx
-Tech Waste: Rapidly developing technology has made it more economical to
dispose devices than to repair or upgrade it. Most tech waste dumped into landfills
or shipped off to third world countries. While the computers we use are not
harmful to use they do have the potential to become toxic in a landfill. Currently
the UN released a warning in a report about this posing threat. The UN report
purposed for regulations to control the problem, before it is too late.
http://chealth.canoe.ca/channel_health_news_details.asp?news_id=30147&news_ch
annel_id=131&channel_id=131
