The battle for Nintendo's market

I realize other people have posted about Microsoft's codenamed "Project Natal" (name not final), but I also wanted to include Sony's codenamed "Arc", "Wand" or whatever they are calling it right now.

Microsoft took a decidedly different approach to motion control, using a camera to capture movement, facial expressions etc. Sony took a route similar to Nintendo - giving players something to hold in their hand while they flail away and the PS3 tracks their movement. On paper, both of these devices are far more powerful than Nintendo's Wii Remote, but will either be successful in taking a piece of Nintendo's pie?

In the end, software is what drives sales. Nintendo has a huge head start in the market and has pretty much nailed the game ideas that people like to play. Microsoft and Sony software for their respective devices will no doubt follow the same sort of template Nintendo created. I'm skeptical on whether Microsoft and Sony will match that sort of success. Nintendo has always kept it simple and made their games extremely approachable and easy to pick up and play. No games on the Xbox360 or PS3 can claim the same. I have a feeling Natal and the Arc/Wand will appeal mostly to the gamers who already have bought their systems, and while that is enough to make them a success, it won't increase their market share. It will always be a battle between Sony and Microsoft for the same market while the Wii continues to run away with the "casual" games market.